StartUp Founders: Assumption Detox

Hey Reader,

StartUps are built on a foundation of assumptions. Some are spot-on. Others, pure delusion. As a founder, it’s hard to tell the difference. Not because you’re reckless or ignorant. You’re just so deep in your solution that you lost perspective. (𝕏)

Whether you’re two weeks or two years into your journey, you need the courage to continually return to first principles. Are the assumptions we made yesterday still true today?

If you are pre-launch or just launched and hearing crickets. It’s more likely than not, that you’re hiding some flawed assumptions.

This is the assumption detox.

RELATED:

Part 2 to last years newsletter on the dangers of trusting your gut: The Pitfalls of Trusting Your Gut

LETS GET INTO IT:

Amidst the mayhem of making something out of nothing, it’s easy to lose sight of a foundation upon which your business stands – your assumptions.

The assumption that crushes most startups? That the best product wins. It doesn’t. The team capable of learning the quickest, iterating, and repeating wins. The founder who understands that distribution beats product excellence – that’s who wins.

It’s one of the benefits of a co-founder. They don’t let you get away with flawed assumptions. They force you to quantify your position, defend your thinking, and be thorough.

It’s why a tribe of mentors & advisors matters – to check and challenge your assumptions.

It’s why pivots happen – because someone had the courage to question the foundational assumptions of the business.

Without these external voices – if you’re a solo founder or working in isolation – you have an even greater duty to rigorously qualify, quantify, and interrogate your assumptions. You must be your fiercest critic, constantly questioning and fighting against your own biases.

Forward-looking growth assumptions aren’t inherently flawed. They’re essential, if they are grounded in some reality and constantly tested. A balance between ambition and realism, with the guts to adjust course when necessary.

So, just for a second, can we go back to the beginning?

This isn’t about second-guessing yourself into oblivion. It’s clarity. Separating intuition from unfounded assumptions, real market insights from your personal biases.

Does the problem you set out to solve still exist? Can you prove it? Are people actively searching for a solution to this problem? Can you prove it? Are people willing to pay for a solution to this problem? Can you prove it? Is there a viable mechanism for your solution to be heard by this audience? Can you prove it? You get the idea.

Assumptions come in three flavors:

1. Blind Spot Assumptions: Silent killers. The ones you’ve inserted into your narrative without even realizing. Not because you’re stupid, but because you’re human. They feel like common sense or obvious truths.
   
2. Cornerstone Assumptions: The necessary gambles. The big bets, the assumptions your entire strategy is built on. You’re hyper-aware of the risk. The ones that, if wrong, tank everything, but you’re betting on it anyway.
   
3. Unnecessary Assumptions: The distractions. The “what ifs” and “we needs” that distract from the core. Often, they involve thinking too far ahead when you haven’t even validated your core idea.

The danger is when a Blind Spot Assumption is actually a Cornerstone Assumption. When something you haven’t even recognized as an assumption is fundamental to your entire business model.

As a solo founder, how do you strip away years of accumulated “knowledge” and get back to first principles?

Answer One: With a lot of difficulty. (fact)

Answer Two: Get systematic about it.

1. Blank Slate: What questions would you have for a friend thinking about starting the same business? Imagine you’re starting your startup today. What would you NEED to know to quantify or qualify that this is a good space to enter and devote the next era of your life to?
   
2. Assumption Audit: What do you “know” about your market, customer, product. Everything.
   
3. Categorize: (Across your stack of knowledge):
   • Is this a Fact (proven with recent data)?
   • Is this Intuition (based on experience, but not tested)?
   • Is this a Blind Spot Assumption I’ve never questioned?
   • Is this a Cornerstone Assumption I’m aware of and building upon?
   • Is this a Legacy Belief (maybe true once, but not checked recently)?
4. Prioritize: Which Blind Spots, if wrong, derail you? Which Cornerstones need urgent validation?

You know the drill from here. Test (RAT), Iterate, Repeat.

This audit/detox is part of the founder playbook. Not a moment in time or a quarterly thing. A mindset, a constant state of questioning and learning.

The market only cares about value creation. Not your assumptions, not how long you’ve been working on your idea, not how much you’ve invested. Just VALUE.

And it is very difficult to create real value if you’re operating on outdated or unfounded assumptions.

This process is uncomfortable. It might force a return to the drawing board, a drastic adjustment. Good. Better to know now.

The flip side is you might also discover new opportunities, a new or bigger market, or that a slight pivot could unlock something better. That’s what you are really hoping for.

This is how great founders operate. They’re not afraid to go back to basics, to challenge everything they think they know. They run this playbook again and again, always staying connected to first principles, always grounding their decisions in current market realities.

So. Transform guesswork into strategy, assumptions into insights, stagnation into growth.

Returning to first principles isn’t a sign of starting over. It’s a sign that you have the capability, the maturity, to question everything. Especially the things you’re most certain about.

That’s what gives you the title of founder.

As always, if I can be of service, feel free to grab time.

LFG.

— James